01 · ContextComplete · led to the proposal

Research dossier · Research pass 1

Our Read On Meydan, Before We Scoped A Thing.

An independent read on the Dubai boutique fitness market and the Meydan catchment, built from desk research, AI-assisted synthesis and conversations across our Dubai and Abu Dhabi network. We did the arithmetic first, so the growth plan could stand on it.

Prepared forAastha and Chris, FORJ

Prepared byPrantik, TFC

Date20 August 2026

01 · What this is built on

Confirmed Inputs, And The Assumptions Filling The Gaps

Every number downstream depends on these. Where FORJ had not decided something, we modelled a range and marked it.

Confirmed by FORJ

Opening Meydan, October 2026
4 sessions a day, ~8 per session, set by the space
Goal: 200 people transacted within 100 days
Chris: 5,778 Instagram followers, ~90% UAE
Bootstrapped; marketing budget lean
Site live, waitlist only, no payment

Assumed, needs confirming

Open 6 days a week
Fixed cost AED 45,000–70,000 a month
Sessions ~60 minutes, no double-booking
Instagram reach 20–35% per post; stories 6–12%

If the fixed-cost band is wrong, only the break-even estimate moves. Everything else holds.

02 · Market read

Four Findings That Change The Brief

Dubai is one of the most competitive boutique fitness markets in the world, and is absorbing an above-average rate of closures.

The name collides with a competitor 1.5 km away

Forge Fitness + Performance, Nadd Al Shiba: small boutique strength and PT, same catchment, phonetically identical.

Local SEO and voice search compete for the same queries. Trademark check before signage.

The quality bar is hospitality, not fitness

Dubai ranks second globally on audited studio experience and first for reception, changing rooms and design.

The first ninety seconds of a first visit are competitive infrastructure here.

Launch sits on top of Dubai Fitness Challenge

31 Oct – 29 Nov. A whole city primed to try something, and every operator giving classes away.

Show up with a 30-day coached programme, not a discount.

Paid ads cannot be the main engine on this budget

At AED 120 a lead and 25% conversion, each member costs ~AED 480. Two hundred is ~AED 96,000.

Paid is a retargeting layer. The engine is Chris, referral, local presence and DFC.

03 · Street level

The Meydan Catchment: Who Is There, And Who Is Missing

Every operator within roughly a ten-minute drive, mapped 20 August.

Operator	Format	Standing
Forge Fitness + PerformanceBoutique strength and PT, physio-led	1-to-1, small group	4.8★ · the name collision
F45 Training MeydanFranchised group HIIT	Large group, follow the screens	5.0★ · 208 reviews
Wellfit MeydanFull-service premium club	Everything, at scale	4.8★ · ~AED 1,500+ a month
Five Pilates studiosPilates Academy, House of Pilates, Real Pilates, SKULPT, EQUI	Small group	4.5–5.0★ · minutes apart
PureGym Nad Al ShebaBudget 24-hour chain	Open floor	4.3★ · from ~AED 99 a month
FITCODE / FitnGlamPremium club with HYROX area	Full-service	4.2–4.3★

The gap

Plenty Of Pilates. No Coached Strength In Small Groups.

Nobody in the catchment offers a coached, programmed strength session capped at eight. That empty slot is FORJ's positioning, and it should be claimed in those words.

04 · Audience maths

The Warm Audience Is Real, But It Is A Third Of The Target

Chris's following, run down to the people who could plausibly pay. Bars are to scale; the pale part is the top of each range.

FollowersConfirmed

5,778

UAE-based~90%, per FORJ

~5,200

Reached per post20–35% organic

1,000–1,800

Within reach of Meydan15-minute drive

500–900

Convert to paid5–10% of the viable audience

25–90

The more valuable asset is probably Chris's personal client book: fifteen years of active and lapsed one-to-one clients, addressable by name.

05 · Capacity

200 People Is Fair. Can The Timetable Serve Them?

Spots a day

4 sessions × 8

831

Spots a month

6 days a week

~12

Per heavy user

3× a week, unlimited

Fill the studio

60 × 12 ≈ 720 spots

The target is achievable, but only with a deliberate mix of light and heavy users. Full classes are how new studios churn the members they just won.

Tier	Members	Visits each	Visits a month	Revenue a month
Unlimited, founding rate	20	10	200	AED 15,000
8 sessions a month	40	7	280	AED 34,000
Class packs, rolling	80	2.5	200	AED 35,200
Active base at 82% capacity	140	—	680	AED 84,200

Break-even

75–95 recurring members, not 200, at a blended AED 600–900 a month.

Track two numbers

200 / ~110 transacted, and still active in month four.

06 · Pricing, our recommendation

Where We Would Land It

Comparable studios run ~AED 120 a class on packs; unlimited sits at AED 850–1,300. Capped at eight, FORJ should price upper-middle.

Tier	Price	Per session	Who it is for
Drop-in	AED 130	130	Visitors, first-timers, DFC traffic
5-class pack · 2 months	AED 600	120	The trial tier; where most of the 200 enter
10-class pack · 3 months	AED 1,100	110	Twice-a-week, not ready to commit monthly
8 sessions a month	AED 850	106	The core recurring tier; sell it hardest
Unlimited	AED 1,150	~96	Three to four times a week, capacity-managed
Founding member · 20 only	AED 7,500	625 / mo	12 months unlimited, paid before opening

The highest-leverage move

AED 150,000 In The Business Before The Doors Open.

Twenty founding members at AED 7,500 upfront is working capital for a bootstrapped studio, and turns the site's "20 founding memberships" line from a tagline into a transaction.

07 · The 100 days

Not A Hundred Even Days. Four Unequal Ones.

In an expat city the months are not worth the same. November is the one attention window; December is for keeping who you won.

Day −30

September

Presale. Money before doors.

Founding checkout live, 20 sold. Chris's client list worked personally. Google Business Profile started.

Day 0

October

Doors open.

Studio opens 1 October. The founding cohort trains while the DFC offer is built.

Day 30

31 Oct – 29 Nov · DFC

An offer, not a discount.

A named 30-day coached programme with a finish line. Reviews start here.

Day 60

December

Retention, not acquisition.

Dubai empties. Anyone who misses two weeks hears from a human.

Day 90+

January

Second wave.

New Year intent, real reviews; the one month paid spend earns out.

08 · Reverse-engineering the target

Where 200 Transactions Actually Come From

Modelled bottom-up. The low end is some channels firing; the high end is all of them, with the studio open on time.

Chris's audience and client bookInstagram, active and lapsed

40–90

DFC activation30-day cohort programme

25–45

Local presenceGoogle profile, walk-in, community

25–45

Referral~0.3 per active member

20–35

Paid, Meta, geo-tightAED 15–25k over 3 months

25–45

0255075100

Total transactedAgainst a target of 200

135–260

0100200300

200 is reachable, and not comfortable. It needs every channel to fire and the studio open on schedule. The opening date is a bigger risk to the number than the budget.

09 · Still outstanding at the time

What We Needed Before This Became A Proposal

Blocking
Chris's active and lapsed client rosterA better predictor of the first 60 members than his follower count.
Blocking
Confirmed opening date, and the slip planIf not open by late October, the DFC window is lost.
Ask
Break-even, in FORJ's own numbersThe member count, and the tier mix it assumes.
Ask
Privilee and ClassPassOur instinct: no during the founding phase.
Ask
Licence and Google profile eligibilityVerification takes weeks and gates local search.
Ask
The Forge collisionTrademark search before signage and domains.
Nice to have
Studio square footageWhether eight could flex to ten.

Answered on the kickoff call, 31 August. The answers live in the execution plan under Discovery.